Although it's not confirmed if the invitation letter from former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to anti-junta ethnic groups in Myanmar, offering himself as a mediator in the armed conflict, is a real draft, the final paragraph suggests that Thaksin wants to show that he was invited to mediate.
The paragraph in question describes Thaksin as someone who is “internationally praised as a mediator for peace in Myanmar,” according to Sunai Phasuk, Senior Researcher at Asia Division, Human Rights Watch.
Meanwhile, former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen has made a parallel effort by reaching out to both the junta in Myanmar and former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi for peace talks.
A political expert, speaking to Thai PBS on the condition of anonymity, has suggested that there might be a meeting between Thaksin and Hun Sen, possibly towards the end of this month.
The ethnic groups, however, are skeptical about Thaksin’s move, wondering what they would have to give up in exchange for peace when they feel they have the advantage on the battlefield, according to Sunai.
Among the ethnic groups, various questions have been raised, such as whether Thaksin’s move was meant to stall for time for the military junta or had the approval of the Thai government or ASEAN, said Sunai.
Despite Thaksin and Hun Sen's good intentions, Sunai says that their approaches lack important elements of international protocol and the conflicting parties are not cooperating with them.
Move Forward party-list MP Rangsiman Rome has expressed concern that Thaksin’s unofficial move, done in his personal capacity, may lead to future issues because it lacked the government’s consent.
Since Thaksin is an influential figure, though, he mentioned that any agreement that the former prime minister might have made with the anti-junta ethnic groups could become binding on the government, while the government has yet to fully assess the situation in Myanmar.
The situation in Myanmar is complicated and sensitive, according to Rangsiman, who added that Thaksin’s peace efforts could have negative consequences for the government's long-term role in ASEAN or the United Nations, which designated Australia as a mediator in Myanmar.
