President Biden’s team for winning the election is considering North Carolina as a state to win over in 2024, a place where former President Trump barely won the last time the two competed directly.
While the Biden campaign acknowledges that it will require relentless effort to reach every voter possible by November, North Carolina is seen as an opportunity, especially considering a gubernatorial race that could benefit Biden.
But experts wonder how achievable that goal is, given that the state hasn't voted for a Democrat since 2008, and went to Trump in his last two White House attempts.
“It’s still a goal but the state is definitely up for grabs,” said GOP strategist Doug Heye. “Trump should win it. If I were betting on it, I would bet Trump would win.”
North Carolina is part of the Biden campaign’s strategy to reach 270 electoral votes through crucial swing states, including the so-called blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, western battlegrounds like Nevada and Arizona, and southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.
North Carolina is part of a $30 million advertising push the campaign announced after the State of the Union address to invest heavily in battleground states. Biden recently conducted radio interviews around Super Tuesday in Fayetteville and Charlotte to connect with Black North Carolinians, a vital voting group for another victory.
The campaign currently has a $155 million war chest but apart from spending and infrastructure, a major factor that experts say can help Biden in North Carolina is the governor’s race, which includes far-right Republican Mark Robinson on the ballot.
“Given the very weak Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina and a very sophisticated operation from the Democratic candidate, the Biden team will have an even better opportunity to win there this time around because of the demographic shifts and a robust coordinated campaign in a state he barely lost,” said Michael LaRosa, first lady Jill Biden’s traveling press secretary during the 2020 campaign.
Trump barely surpassed Biden in North Carolina last time by less than one percentage point. The last Democrat to win the state in a presidential contest was then-Democratic nominee Barack Obama but he lost his reelection bid there to Mitt Romney in 2012 by two percentage points. Trump won the state when he ran for the White House the first time in 2016, beating Hillary Clinton by nearly four points.
An aggregation of polls show Trump has a 7.4 percent lead over Biden in North Carolina, sometimes much wider than the lead the former president has in other battleground states.
2024 could turn out to be a situation in North Carolina where Democratic gubernatorial nominee Josh Stein wins but Trump also wins the state, considering that when Trump won the state in 2020, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper was reelected to a second term.
The GOP nominee for superintendent, who would oversee the public schools in North Carolina, is also troubling to some moderate Republicans. Social media posts have emerged of Michele Morrow calling for former President Obama to be publicly executed, CNN reported.
Democrats think that focusing on North Carolina is a good idea considering the Republican candidates running for election.
Ivan Zapien, former official at the Democratic National Committee, said that it's a wise choice because the Republican candidates lower on the ballot may not appeal to suburban voters, making it a good opportunity for Democrats to gain support.
Despite this, Democrats admit that it will be challenging.
Even though North Carolina is favorable for a political shift, it's still a tough state, according to LaRosa.
Republicans, such as Heye, who is from North Carolina, believe that the state's changing demographics means there's still a chance to succeed.
There is a small possibility that Democrats could win because of the state's close race and rapid growth, especially in areas like Charlotte and Raleigh, along with their surrounding suburban areas, according to him.
The growth in places like Charlotte and Raleigh includes an increase in young professionals and suburban women, who helped boost Democratic performance in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Black voters play a crucial role in the North Carolina elections, as the state is also home to 11 Historically Black Colleges and Universities.
Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way, compared North Carolina to Georgia, a state that played a significant role in Biden's 2020 victory due in part to support from Black voters.
Kessler highlighted that both North Carolina and Georgia are important for Democrats due to the increasing number of college-educated voters. North Carolina is shaping up to be a state where Democrats could succeed, similar to what happened in Georgia in 2020.
