A new report from a federal agency has revealed that almost all of the increasing demand for electricity in the US is being met by renewables.
The new numbers The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that the U.S. is not moving quickly enough to achieve the climate targets set by the Biden administration.
It also raised doubts about a key reason for the proposed national expansion of gas power plants and gas exports.
The EIA numbers indicate that the increasing gas exports are causing households to pay more for electricity. This is happening even as the agency discovered that gas's importance to the power sector is decreasing. The federal projections of electric growth, largely fueled by renewables, go against recent arguments favoring a buildout of gas infrastructure to protect the nation’s grid from surging demand.
Recent findings from the federal agency challenge the idea that only an expansion of gas infrastructure can safeguard the nation's grid from rapidly increasing demand.
Earlier this week, CNBC reported that electricity demand is expected to increase by 20 percent by 2030, driven mainly by the construction of new data centers for artificial intelligence. The fossil fuel industry utilized these numbers to argue that only natural gas can reliably meet the rising demand and that new gas plants must be constructed quickly. According to a report by Wells Fargo, electricity demand is expected to increase by 20 percent by 2030, largely due to the construction of new data centers for artificial intelligence.
This week, the fossil fuel industry used these numbers to argue that only natural gas can reliably meet the rising demand and that new gas plants must be built quickly. The fossil fuel industry took advantage of these numbers to make their argument. Goldman Sachs has suggested that as much as 60 percent of new AI demand will be powered by gas. argued The recent EIA projections of increasing electric demand aligned with those of the banks but indicated that renewables are currently the main source of new capacity.
EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis stated that in 2025, they expect solar generation to surpass hydroelectricity for the first time in history.
The agency expects total U.S. power generation to grow by 3 percent in 2024, which would represent an approximately 15 percent increase by 2030, equivalent to about 13 gigawatts or enough electricity to power a little under 10 million homes.
The agency found that about 92 percent of the new generation will come from wind, hydropower, and particularly large-scale solar.
Solar accounted for 60 percent of that growth, followed by wind at 19 percent and hydropower at 13 percent.
The EIA predicts that the electricity provided by solar will increase by 41 percent in 2024 compared to 2023 levels. By 2025, solar is expected to supply more energy to the grid than hydropower for the first time.
The rise in solar is almost seven times the increase in hydropower and more than eight times that of wind between 2023 and 2024.
Meanwhile, the share of both coal and natural gas in the nation’s grid is expected to gradually decrease, according to EIA.
The amount of coal used for electricity generation is projected to decrease by 4.2 percent this year and another 7.2 percent next year.
The situation for natural gas is more complex, but it also indicates a declining market.
The amount of gas used by the power sector increased by over 7 percent last year, but this year's increase is expected to be just 1.5 percent. The use of gas by the power sector is forecasted to decrease by 0.5 percent next year.
The use of gas by the power sector is forecasted to decrease by 0.5 percent next year, after an increase of just 1.5 percent this year.
The report shows progress in reducing the impact of domestic U.S. energy use on global warming, which is a step in the right direction for the campaign.
As energy production increases, the release of planet-heating carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels in the U.S. is gradually decreasing.
It dropped by almost 3 percent last year, and is expected to decrease by 0.2 percent this year and 0.5 percent the following year.
However, the reduction is not fast enough to meet U.S. or global climate goals. The U.S. is far from reaching its target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by two-thirds by 2030, let alone the goal of consistent 5 to 10 percent annual cuts set by the Biden administration.
which the administration wants the nation to achieve starting next decade. This incremental growth of solar and wind energy in the U.S. is also not meeting the levels projected by the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine to prevent dangerous warming. This is consistent with the global situation. A report in December by the Global Carbon Project revealed that despite a record increase in renewable energy installations, carbon emissions are expected to rise by 1 percent in 2023, when they need to fall rapidly.
Last December, Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Cicero Center for International Climate Research, mentioned that renewable energy is reaching record levels, but fossil fuels are also reaching record highs.
To take the lead globally, the U.S. needs to speed up the installation of renewable energy. The National Academies stated that the US needs to have a power sector that is 75 percent free of fossil fuels by 2030 in order to achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions by midcentury. report By the end of 2025, based on EIA projections, the US will only reach 44 percent renewable energy.
Addressing this gap would require the U.S. to produce and connect an additional 1200 gigawatt-hours of zero-emission sources by the end of the decade. statement This is roughly equivalent to adding the current nuclear fleet every year until the end of the decade, or achieving a 30 percent annual increase in wind and solar energy.
Additionally, the extent to which the U.S. is exporting its contribution to climate change abroad is undermining its climate progress. projected According to the EIA, U.S. coal exports have increased by 4.5 percent this year, despite the decline in domestic use and production.
However, the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore is causing a bottleneck in exports, resulting in less growth than initially expected.
DeCarolis mentioned that he anticipates coal exports to recover later in the year, but there is significant uncertainty regarding when the port will reopen and whether shippers can access alternate ports.
In the meantime, the projection is for natural gas exports to foreign markets to increase by 3 percent this year and 11 percent the following year, which aligns with the completion of new export facilities.
The data from the EIA also indicates that the rising gas exports are linked to increasing energy prices for consumers in the U.S. its During the same period, the cost of gas for households
has increased by 52 percent
, according to data from EIA.
The proportion of natural gas alone and electricity for consumers
is 17 percent higher
than it was before the export boom started, according to EIA. After a significant decrease, the agency predicts that the cost of natural gas for the power industry will go up by 25 percent next year — slightly raising overall consumer electricity prices by just under 2 percent.“The U.S. is shipping out more and more natural gas, and bringing in higher prices as a result,” Clark Williams-Derry of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
in an analysis. Growing demand for electricity in the U.S. is primarily being satisfied by renewable sources, a recent federal report has revealed. The new figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate that the U.S. is not progressing quickly enough to achieve the climate goals of the Biden administration. It also raises questions about a key rationale for a proposed nationwide expansion in… than before the export boom began, according to EIA.
After a long fall, the agency expects the cost of gas to the power sector to rise by a quarter next year — nudging up total consumer electricity prices by a little under 2 percent.
“The U.S. is exporting more and more natural gas, and importing higher prices as a result,” Clark Williams-Derry of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis wrote in an analysis.
