Weather experts at the University of Pennsylvania anticipated a significant number of hurricanes this year. a season with a high number of hurricanes for 2024 on Thursday, a “hyperactive” season that could threaten the Gulf Coast.
The UPenn forecast anticipates 27-39 named tropical storms, with the most likely number being 33 storms, which is higher than any forecast in the project's 15-year history. An average season usually has about half that number.
“We’ve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming,” Professor Michael Mann, who leads the forecast, said in a statement.
Warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and an expected moderate La Niña weather occurrence in the Pacific this autumn are likely to result in more storms, according to the forecast.
Mann said his group’s predictions can be used to better prepare for the hurricane season, and also speak to greater links between climate trends and weather patterns.
“These results underscore the seasonal relationship between climate and tropical cyclones, which helps to provide context for understanding how climate change is impacting hurricanes,” Mann said. “Since it’s the same basic relationships that are in play on seasonal and longer timescales, for instance, the warmth of the tropical Atlantic.”
The announcement comes after Colorado State University researchers, generally considered the most reliable forecast, also predicted a rough hurricane season. The CSU forecast calls for 23 named storms in 2024, significantly higher than the average of 14.
The CSU forecast warns Americans to “anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
