The Cook Political Report, which is neutral in politics, announced on Wednesday that it is adjusting its assessment of the Nevada Senate race from favoring the Democratic party to being undecided.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) will likely compete against retired Army Capt. Sam Brown (R) in November. Brown faces several primary challengers, but Senate Republicans are trying to unite around the Army veteran for this election cycle.
Meanwhile, Rosen is running for a second term, having defeated former Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) in 2018.
Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis that the rating of Rosen’s seat is being changed for a few reasons: the constantly changing population of Nevada, President Biden’s lower performance compared to Donald Trump in state polls, and a unique economic impact from the post-COVID period.
“The shift in Nevada may be somewhat unexpected. After all, it's the only swing state won by Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and Republicans haven't won a statewide federal race here since 2012. Of the states now in the undecided category, it's likely the most challenging,” Taylor wrote.
“However, it's important to remember that the 2022 Senate race was the closest in the country, with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto winning by just under 8,000 votes over former Republican state Attorney General Adam Laxalt — or about three quarters of a percentage point.”
Taylor noted that despite Rosen having more campaign funds than Brown, polls have shown a close competition between the two Senate candidates, with Biden also trailing Trump in Nevada. Candidates running in swing states like Nevada are typically expected to outperform their party's presidential nominee.
The editor of the Cook Political Report mentioned that Republicans have indicated that the late Sen. Harry Reid's voter mobilization efforts are still influential. The Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas has played a critical role in increasing voter turnout among Democrats.
“Jacky Rosen is finding it difficult to connect with Nevada voters because she can't justify her support for Joe Biden's policies, which have led to higher prices, open borders, and a rise in crime,” said Maggie Abboud, a spokeswoman for the Senate GOP campaign arm, in response to the rating adjustment.
Updated at 2:40 p.m.
