By Taryn Phaneuf | NerdWallet
It wouldn’t be Easter without colorful eggs and chocolate bunnies. But threats to the supply of these holiday essentials are causing prices to go up at a time when shoppers are tired from years of high inflation.
Here’s a look at why inflation is having a big impact on your Easter basket.
Cocoa prices are soaring and there’s no relief in sight
Chocolate prices have gone up almost 38% since 2020, before inflation started to increase, according to NielsenIQ market research data given to NerdWallet. Recently, price increases have happened because the main ingredient in chocolate, cocoa, has become much more expensive.
Several bad weather events and disease have seriously damaged cocoa crops in West Africa, where about 70% of the world’s cocoa is grown. As a result, cocoa prices are at their highest levels.
At the moment, there are no signs that cocoa prices will start to go down, says Billy Roberts, a food and beverage economist with CoBank, a Colorado-based lender specializing in agriculture. Early reports on next season’s harvest, which happens in late summer and early fall, are not as positive as the industry had hoped. Until crop yields get better, cocoa prices will probably remain high.
Roberts says chocolate makers have realized that constantly raising chocolate prices is not sustainable. While shoppers spent more money on chocolate in the last two years, they did so while buying less of it, according to NielsenIQ data.
But that doesn’t mean prices will drop. Instead, Roberts says, packaging will become smaller. “It’s not necessarily that they’re trying to deceive the consumer, but they’re trying to offer a product at a price that consumers are comfortable paying.”
Egg prices have gone up 47% since August
While chocolate might be a luxury purchase for grocery shoppers, eggs are a basic necessity. So, even when it isn’t Easter, consumers tend to keep a close eye on egg prices, egg prices says Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist with CoBank.
“People remember the cost of the last dozen eggs, just like they remember the last time they filled up the gas tank,” Earnest says.
Just like with chocolate, there’s been a lot to monitor in recent years. The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $2.02 around Easter 2020, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ FRED site, a 38% increase from January of that year. That brief spike was caused by sudden changes in consumer demand because of the COVID-19 pandemic. gas prices By Easter 2021, the average price of a dozen eggs was $1.62. The following year, it went up to $2.52, and prices continued to rise through 2023.
Eggs have been expensive the past two years mainly because of a highly contagious and deadly avian flu that has caused a lot of problems for the U.S. egg supply. The virus is the main reason U.S. consumers saw the average price of a dozen eggs more than double between January 2022 and January 2023, when it peaked at $4.82.
Prices dropped to an average of $3.27 per dozen around Easter last year and stayed that way until the fall. This was partly because egg producers weren’t seeing new cases of bird flu and had an opportunity to rebuild their flocks. But farmers reported a new outbreak in November.
During the last six months, the price of eggs has been steadily increasing. In February, a dozen eggs cost an average of $3, which is 47% higher than the $2.04 price in August.
Earnest doesn't anticipate that this outbreak will drive prices as high as they were in 2022 and 2023, partly because chicken farmers have implemented improvements to better safeguard their flocks. However, with the arrival of spring, migratory birds pose a renewed threat to chicken farms, as they have previously caused outbreaks of avian flu by transmitting the deadly virus to livestock.
Despite a decrease in new cases of bird flu in recent weeks, Earnest asserts that we are still facing an elevated risk to the flocks during this season.
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The article originally appeared on Bad weather and disease are straining the supply of cocoa. Meanwhile, another outbreak of bird flu is causing egg prices to rise once again. NerdWallet.
